Risk And Hazard Assessment (Ara), A Current Tool For Primary Planning

Abstract

The paradigm of conflicts that threaten states, for approximately thirty years, of low intensity, mainly intra-state and asymmetric, accounted for a clear trend, which is affected by the international panorama presented by the conflicts between Azerbaijan - Armenia (2020 ) and Ukraine – Russia (in development as of March 2022); that seem to take us to the past, when facing states in high-intensity conflicts (the second of them) and the main –not exclusive- use of conventional capabilities. What has been described presents the challenge of reflecting on the tools of our Defense to detect international risks and threats, highlighting the Assessment of Risks and Threats as a product of primary planning, so that the political leader can make better decisions.