The new geopolitical tabletop of the Middle East after the Iran-Israel War: Reconfiguration of power, alliances and emerging threats

Abstract

This article analyzes the strategic transformations following the 2025 confrontation between Iran and Israel. It argues that the war is not an isolated event, but rather the culmination of a process of structural and doctrinal rivalry established over four decades of ideological, religious, and geopolitical tensions. From this perspective, the conflict is the symbolic representation of the struggle for regional hegemony between a revolutionary Shiite power like Iran and a Western-oriented liberal state like Israel, within a volatile context even more volatile than that of the Arab Spring.
Furthermore, it analyzes the role of non-state actors, the rise of hybrid warfare, and the impact of the Strait of Hormuz as a critical and strategic point of global energy security. It also describes the alliances that have recently emerged in the Middle East, characterized by their strategic pragmatism, tactical cooperation, and ideological rivalry. Finally, it proposes three prospective scenarios: strategic containment, regional escalation, and prolonged fragmentation